China has, since 2022, advised Russia that the Ukraine war was a mistake. Two years ago, it said China would continue to support Russia on its Ukrainian problem. China would ignore pressure from the United States and the European Union and not allow outside (NATO) pressure to interfere with the China-Russia relationship: "China will not abandon its established policies, and the outside world will not interfere with normal cooperation between China and Russia.”

Russia also had several economic reasons to be careful with China. Although Russia had dominated Central Asia for centuries, China and the booming Chinese economy are now moving in. Chinese traders and businessmen are everywhere. The traders offer the best prices and the widest variety of goods. The Chinese businessmen offer the most attractive deals, although Kazakhstan turned down a Chinese proposal to rent a million hectares (2.5 million acres) of unused farmland and allow Chinese farmers to work it. This sort of thing scares Central Asians, who have a population of less than 65 million, compared to 880 million Chinese. But the Chinese are being allowed to build highways and railways that will connect all of Eurasia, as well as oil and gas pipelines carrying energy to China. This is all good, if the Chinese don't try to export many people. This is a real fear, because Russia conquered Central Asia in the 19th century, and held on to it until the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. China could replace Russia, and the people of Central Asia have little they can do about it. Still, the Central Asian states believe the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) may help keep China in check. The SCO includes Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, with Mongolia, Pakistan, India, and Iran as associate members, or "observers." Russia and the Central Asian states are trying to make India a member to counterbalance China. Unofficially, the SCO exists to keep the peace between China and Russia over economic activities in Central Asia. Right now, China is winning the race to develop large oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. China needs the energy and is willing to pay whatever it takes. Since the Central Asian nations are run by corrupt leaders, often dictators, the Chinese have an easy, if expensive, way to gain control of natural resources. Now, Russia is more concerned with halting, or much reducing, the flow of opium, hashish, and heroin from Afghanistan to Russia. These drugs have created millions of addicts and major social problems. Russia has supplied the United States with extensive information on the drug gangs in Afghanistan and throughout Central Asia, and how the smuggling networks operate. Russia is also trying to get more cooperation from Central Asian governments. But in many of these countries, senior officials are on the drug gang payrolls.